Boise Real Estate Market Update: July 2011August 22nd, 2011
Author: Todd McCauleySummer is usually the best time of year for Boise real estate and this year is definitely no exception. Although Boise homes have been losing value every month since July 2006, we are seeing signs that we are nearing the bottom of the real estate market. National news-particularly relating to the Dodd-Frank bill and the debt negotiations-may change the course of current trends, but barring that, there is a lot to be positive about.
First, the July 2011 Boise real estate market is up 51% vs. July 2010 market. (That is a little misleading because July 2010 was the first month that the first time homebuyer tax credit ended.) That said, Boise home sales in July 2011 are up from July 2008, 2009, and 2010. Likewise, pending Boise home sales are up 38% from a year ago.
Distressed home sales in Boise continue to fall. (Distressed sales are either short sales-the lender accepts less than owed-or REO sales-repossessed homes.) In February, short sales represented 23% of all Boise home sales. In July 2011, short sales dropped to 16% of total. REO sales are 22% of total home sales in Boise (down from a high of 40% in December 2010). This is as low as we’ve been in the past 20 months.
The median price of an existing Boise home (no new construction) is $143,000. Although we are still off last year’s mark by -11%, this does represent a 3% increase from June 2011. Boise’s lowest median value since the real estate bubble burst was $126,500 (in January 2011). Did we hit bottom? Can’t tell until January 2012. Boise real estate values drop every winter.
The Boise home affordability index remains near a record low-meaning Boise homes are as affordable as they’ve been in a long time. In January 2005, it took 19% of a median income to buy a median resale home in Boise. In June of 2006, that hit a record high of 30%. Boise residents spent nearly a third of their gross income on a house payment. Since that time, affordability has dropped to 12%. It now sits at 13%.
The top story in Boise real estate is definitely home inventory. Overall real estate inventory is down 3% from last month and down an amazing 33% from this time last year. In July 2010, there were 3124 resale Boise homes available. This year, there are only 1901 Boise homes available–a 39% decrease. It was 2005 since homes available for sale in Boise were that low. New construction homes in Boise also continue to get bought up-inventory has fallen 43 of the past 58 months.
Another indication that we may be nearing the bottom of the Boise real estate market is that sales discounts have dropped. The average sales discount for a Boise home is 2.7%. In 2009, the average discount was near 9%.
This report summarizes a few of the trends Boise researchers have been tracking for the past several years. Most benchmarks seem to indicate we are at or near the bottom. In some cases-particularly Boise home inventory levels-it seems we are transforming form a buyer’s market to a legitimate seller’s market and that’s something we haven’t seen for nearly six years. Time will tell, but with prices still low and interest rates near record lows, it may be time to make a move before the unbelievable buying opportunity ends.
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